Posted On: August 8, 2008 by Kevin P. Whitaker

Should I Take the Settlement Offer or Go To Trial: A Statistical Approach to Civil Justice...

When asked, "What are my chances at winning at trial?", most lawyers in Massachusetts or elsewhere would reply, "It depends." A recent article in the New York Times is offering some percentages and cost estimates that will likely raise a few eyebrows.

The article entitled, Study Finds Settling Is Better Than Going to Trial, discusses a study finding settlement is statistically generally the best option. The article indicates plaintiffs were wrong to go to trial in 61% of the cases and defendants were wrong to proceed to trial in 24% of cases. Both were wrong because they could have settled the case for an amount better than what was achieved at trial.

The article reports:

...in just 15 percent of cases, both sides were right to go to trial — meaning that the defendant paid less than the plaintiff had wanted but the plaintiff got more than the defendant had offered.
It's worth noting, however, that the estimated cost for making the wrong choice was a lot greater for defendants ($1.1 million) than it was for plaintiffs ($43,000).

While numbers are one factor to consider in proceeding to trial, the issues of civil justice, correcting a wrong, or having your day in court are worth something of societal value too. These are issues that can't be measured in dollars or percentages, but at the same time lawyers need to advise their client's to pursue their best interests. In the end, the right question may not only be: "What are my chances of winning at trial?" but also ,"Why do I want to go to trial?" The decision is always the clients and it's a decision that should be based on what is right for them, even when it's against all odds.

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